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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."